Below is a first cut using my computer model for picking Derby winners. I think I included most of the likely Derby horses. The percentages will not quite add up because I included over 20 horses and had to run the simulations twice to get all the horses included. The numbers will change a lot after the post-position draw anyway so these are only preliminary.

The computer takes into account all sorts of factors with an emphasis on the Derby profile that I have described in previous posts, which emphases overall development line, current condition, breeding, 3yo preparation and running style. The percentages are generated by simulating many thousands of races and tallying up the results (referred to as "Monte Carlo" simulation).

Listed in order of most likely to win to least likely are the horses names followed by what the computer model calculates to be the break even odds. That is followed by the predicted percent chance of winning, place percentage, show percentage, and Top-4 percentage.

I tested this latest model on the last 7 derbies and it did very well with the highest predicted win pct horse winning 4 of the seven races and the second choice winning once (top choice finished second in that one) and the third choice winning once (top choice finished third). With the exception of Charismatic (the model did not pick him in the top 3), the actual winner has always had break-even odds (based on the model) of less than 7-1. Depending on the post position draw, that would indicate that the likely winner will be either Perfect Drift, Harlan's Holiday, or Saarland. The odds will obviously dictate the best play. Also, the top 2 or 3 finishers usually had break-even odds of 15-1 or less.

Enjoy and good luck to all. Use or ignore at your own risk. If you have any questions or comments feel free to post away.

Chris

P.S. I personally like Saarland a little more than the model does but I think it may simply be because I have been touting him since last September...

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Model Predictions:

Horse, Fair Odds, Win pct, Place pct, Show pct, Top-4 pct

Perfect Drift, 3.4, 23%, 37%, 48%, 58%
Harlan's Holiday, 4.5, 18%, 31%, 42%, 51%
Saarland, 5.3, 16%, 30%, 42%, 52%
Request For Parole, 8.8, 10%, 22%, 32%, 41%
Buddah, 9.9, 9%, 19%, 27%, 36%
Blue Burner, 20.1, 5%, 10%, 17%, 24%
Easy Grades, 25.1, 4%, 9%, 15%, 22%
Medaglio D'oro, 26.2, 4%, 9%, 15%, 21%
Came Home, 26.5, 4%, 10%, 17%, 27%
Essence of Dubai, 26.7, 4%, 9%, 15%, 22%
Private Emblem, 28.3, 3%, 8%, 13%, 19%
Sunday Break, 30.9, 3%, 8%, 13%, 17%
War Emblem, 42.2, 2%, 7%, 13%, 20%
Ocean Sound, 57.7, 2%, 4%, 8%, 12%
USS Tinosa, 66.6, 1%, 5%, 10%, 17%
Windward Passage, NA, 0%, 2%, 5%, 9%
Castle Gandolfo, NA, 1%, 1%, 2%, 4%
Wild Horses, NA, 0%, 1%, 2%, 4%
Lusty Latin, NA, 1%, 3%, 5%, 8%
Johannesburg, NA, 1%, 2%, 3%, 6%
Proud Citizen, NA, 0%, 1%, 2%, 4%