Mike,

I have to agree with you about Upstart, that lemon has been squeezed a lot; however if your TG # is accurate many will look at it as a circle back to his top 1st Saturday in May. Materiality in typical Pletcher Derby Prep form running his race yesterday and this one will be retired before the Spa opens.

Florida preps a very difficult read # wise this year with high winds and extremely slow surfaces on both Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby days.

In the spirit of Jimbo who has been MIA for quite awhile " Nothing coming out of Louisiana will be a Derby factor" I believe is accurate this year. International Star just too slow TG wise even with a forward move yesterday after pairs.

American Pharaoh will have to be a freak to make noise with 2 easy preps
(providing he jogs again on 4/11) only 3 weeks spacing into the Derby.

I don't see anything serious coming out of the Wood,shipping from the desert or Sunland. The Animal Kingdom fans will support Dubai Sky who was not even TC nominated?

So that leaves us with the Santa Anita Derby and Carpe Diem in the Bluegrass IMHO as the major players for the top spot.

Dortmund has done nothing wrong and Prospect Park seems to be learning what's its all about and will love the extra furlong. Desormeaux said to really like this horse and Sise in an interview 2 weeks before it was announced that Texas Red would not make the Derby said that " Kent was committed to his horse through the Derby."

Carpe Diem will be the wild card and possibly the value if both Baffert horses come through their final preps easily. I'm guessing Walden/WinStar are calling the shots here over the trainer? Interesting horse who ran fast early, was backed off and seems to be heading to the Twin Spires via the path of a peaking on Derby Day if all goes well.

Let the Derby drum beat begin and wake up this hibernating board. It's Spring can't you tell, we had a dusting of snow and I had to scrape ice off my windshield before going out this morning!

Frank D.