Materiality (1547 Views)
Posted by:
covelj70 (IP Logged)
Date: April 14, 2015 12:37PM
why is this horse 12-1 on the early Morning Line?
Am I missing something?
1) He's the fastest horse coming into the race
2) He has won twice going 1 1/8, something no one else in the field has done
3) He is the only one of the top contenders to beat another good horse (Dortomund, AP, Frosted, Firing Line and Carpe Diem all beat tin cans in the final tune-up)
4) He has tactical speed that will keep him out of trouble
Is it really because he didn't run as a 2 year old? He won on Jan. 11th. So if he had run 12 days earlier, that is somehow supposed to matter 5 months later? That's the dumbest thing I have ever heard
In terms of seasoning and foundation
1) He has two 1 1/8 races which no one else has, not to mention on a track everyone considered deep and tiring which only adds to the fitness level
2) Had a tough stretch dual which no one else in the top flight had to further build foundation
3) most importantly, he bounced out of the Florida Derby in tremendous shape with a monster breeze last weekend (came home in 22 and change in that breeze). That's the truest test of how much foundation a horse has. If he didn't have enough foundation, he would have been gutted by that race.
Materiality may not win because American Pharoah may just be that brilliant or Materiality gets a bad post, etc but I don't understand why he's 12-1 right now when the horses ahead of him are a) slower, b) less battle tested, and c) no better pedigree wise than he is for the 1 1/4
If there's something other than foundation and the no 2 year old race (which is totally silly), please let me know