Re: Materiality - 2015 GP question (544 Views)
Posted by:
TreadHead (IP Logged)
Date: April 14, 2015 11:04PM
Verrazano's -4 was at MTH after a -2 at GP earlier that year, so this is what Jim is talking about I think. The data is all over the place.
What I'm more interested in is if on-track observers at GP noticed something "different" about the GP surface this year that might make comparisons to prior years not very wise.
I only get anecdotal data from what I read 'cappers tweeting and blogging, but I don't remember ever hearing this many mentions of a "deep, tiring surface" at GP or a dead rail as I did this year. It seems to me in year's past GP always seemed to be a speed/rail favoring tarmac and closers had little shot at all, to the point where some trainers were even complaining at florida derby time.
If that was the case in prior years, it could certainly make sense that horses that ran lights out (Pletcher or not) on those tarmac tracks didn't do as well at Churchill because it was a different enough surface. But if this year, something has changed at GP and it is now more deep and tiring than it was in year's past on average, there may be something to it.
Or it could be the testing for sure. Or some combination of both.