Tavasco,


Not sure how to answer that but here goes.

Handicapping Objectivity - Performance figures are the closest thing we have to that - an actual measurement of what happened on the race track. I suppose pace figures could fall into that too, or most anything with solid methodology and math behind it.

Stanford is a nice colt coming into his own. Like his development. Don't know that he's ever gone backward. But Materiality handled him pretty easily. And Stanford got away with an easy lead in LA Derby and kicked away from the field in the stretch - which he should have - but International Star ran him down anyway. So that's either a big minus for Stanford or a big plus for International Star, depending upon how you look at it. Since they came home in 12 and change, I tend to say it's more of an extra credit plus for International Star. Stanford ran really well. But horses who get away with lone front running trips with soft fractions (48.59, 113.27) are supposed to deliver a peak performance. Compare those fractions of LA Derby to the New Orleans Handicap (47.57, 111.27) or the FG Oaks (47.03, 111.19) earlier on the card. So to my eye, Stanford would need a big forward move to contend for the win, and that isn't real likely as he just got a perfect set up in LA Derby and probably ran about as well as he can. And keep in mind that he wasn't that fast at 2 so he may not have a lot of room for more development. Nice colt though.

Surprises at the Derby... You put 20 young colts in the gate in front of 100,000 screaming fans and ask them to run further than they ever have on a track with a lot of clay in it that many of them have never raced on against the deepest field they are likely to ever face... and you are usually going to get some surprises. Probably none bigger than Mine That Bird though. Very often the public gets enamored with a few colts that have shown brilliance at 2 or at shorter distances against weaker fields when they had it all their own way. But when those colts get a good dose of dirt, bumping and adversity heading into the first turn at CD many of them stress out, fall apart and waste valuable energy that they are going to need later. There's a reason why the favorite didn't win this race for over 20 years. Now that we are in the information age the public is doing a better job of sorting this race out. But they still don't really get it. I don't mean to keep preaching, but a young horse must have the mind to hold it all together to win this race, or get very lucky if they don't.

No clue what you mean by shortage of GP closers. Typically a front runner's track anyway. Surface was very quirky on it's 2 biggest days for 3 year olds this year though.