I think several horses are close to equiprobable to hit the super, but to answer your question I'll go with Upstart. He shows up every race, has the negative numbers at two and three. Has run two grueling races over a ridiculously slow surface, and was still running (while a very talented Frosted said, "I've had quite enough of this!"). Even when he loses, he's there (as in the Juvy).

Besides the crowd and tough opponents, the Derby test will make these the most tired they will probably ever be, and Upstart seems the least likely to want to lie down on track when they start reaching for the bottom. The talented others . . . the jury is still out. Dortmund a possible exception.