Has anyone considered that Came Home was not 100% before the Santa Anita Derby? That he came out of the race with a bit of a tepmerature? That he still won despite all the negatives going into that race? That he is 6 for 7? Tossing the SA Derby, he is the fastest horse? That he is training very well at CD? I seriously doubt he will be higher than 5-1 at post time. McCarron in a big money race is not to be overlooked.

Came Home is one of 3 dual qualifiers. The other 2 are Johannesburg and Saarland.

I think there is a lot more to knock on those two horses than there is on Came Home.

And so, my preliminary picks in order are Came Home, Johannesburg. Saarland will be no better than third, possibly worse. Have not yet recieved the TG Derby figs which may alter my exotic wagering stratagy, but despite the past few years, the dual qualifier system is a mathamatically and statistically sound formula for predicting the winner of the derby.

I might add that this crop stinks real bad, but given the past few years, thats expected. Last year I said the same about that crop and predicted than NONE would be around as 4 year olds. I wasn't far off.
However, I hope for a safe trip for all and look forward to the discussion and the race.

MO