Mark,

Let me preface this by saying that I think Came Home is a really good horse. You have to respect all those daylight wins. I think he will get a lot of respect as people start looking at the DRF and seeing 1st by 3, 1st by 2, 1st by 4, etc. I think he could be a great horse at 1 mile or less. However, he is the one likely favorites (has to be one of the top 3 public picks at post time) that I will compeletely toss.

His line looks horrible. He paired two very fast races as a 2yo and then reacted. He then comes out and sizzles off the layoff (his trainer is THE best layoff trainer in the US)and has gotten progressively slower with each race as the distances stretch out. You will not find this line on any previous Derby winner.

You mentioned the temperature as an excuse. Well, he spiked a temp after his previous race as well. In my mind, that indicates a reaction to the stress of the race and is yet another negative to go along with his BI and incredibly slow stretch run in the SA Derby.

With regards to being a DQ, he qualifies on dosage and 2yo brilliance but his breeding is far from Derby Caliber (and I am sure that Dr. Steven Roman the inventor of dosage would agree). His broodmare sire has an average winning distance of 6.9 furlongs. You will not see anything close to that in any previous derby winner. Add that to his sire AWD which is mediocre at best and you conclude he has very little chance to win the Derby from a breeding angle. Finally, he is bound to be pressing a hot pace, which will only magnify his distance limitations.

I like the horse. He is brilliant and has great connections but he will not be on any of my tickets unless his odds are much higher than I expect.

Good luck to all.

Chris