OK.

So we have a pattern that can't be called an 0-2-x.

I'm no expert on TG patterns, but this is how i view his overall record;

breaks maiden 1st time out. good sign.

improves 9.25 points and pairs it on 6 weeks rest. good sign.

bounces off cross country ship and 8 weeks rest. 8 weeks off suggests a physical problem, but the bounce was still a better figure than his worst figure to date. So i see it more positively than negatively.

3 months later, he runs a career top, 4 points better than his best.

next start is 1st try at 2 turns and he wins by daylight with just a slight bounce (1.25 points).

In the derby, while not 100% cranked up for it, he wins by daylight with, granted, a slower figure than his previous race, but still faster than his best at 2 years old.
I view this as positive developement. Even when he's off, he's fast and consistant.

He gets 4 weeks rest, ships to CD and works faster than he did before SA derby. He clearly loves CD and clearly is over any illness. If he gets back to his top, which is not impossible, he wins by daylight.

One last thing: didn't his sire, Gone West, sire a Belmont Stakes winner?
Remember, these 3 yo horses are typical of the way horses are bred today: speed, no stamina. Thunder Gulch, Real Quiet, Charismatic and Monarchos weren't supposed to win on breeding either, so I think that angle is not as useful as it was in the past when really good horses were running.
Interesting discussion, though. Keep it comin!

MO