Re: Belmont possibles (1005 Views)
Posted by:
ringato3 (IP Logged)
Date: May 17, 2015 08:39PM
Miff,
To each his own view, but IMHO materiality being A serious threat to AP has nothing to do with the derby. I am a believer that when a speed horse blows a start, I really don't care how he runs the rest of the race. When the race is the derby and he blows the start, even more so. To me, the reason materiality has a strong shot are the races before the derby. Florida derby was fast on all figs and he beat a good horse and did it the right way. He ran two 1 1/8 races really and is well bred for the Belmont distance, if such a thing exists with the current breed. He gets rest and as much as I hate to say it, the Belmont is the race Pletcher gets his horses to run in.
To a lesser degree, race dynamics make frosted a contender. Materiality can't let AP get too loose. He will have to attend the pace. Pletcher has a history of believing the Belmont is best run on or near the lead. Palace malice pushed a fast pace. Commissioner, a slow horse at the time, pushed the pace. Further back, Pletcher had Dunkirk, another non speed horse on the lead. Frosted would be the beneficiary if the pace got a bit hot. (At least the fastest of the potential beneficiaries)
Fascinating race.
Rob