Re: Belmont possibles (618 Views)
Posted by:
ringato3 (IP Logged)
Date: May 18, 2015 11:32AM
Mike,
Agreed on "rabbit". I said I am not a conspiracy theory guy. But I do doubt that Pletcher tells both jockeys to go for the lead. Watch Dortmund's early ride in the Preakness. It turned out irrelevant as AP dusted them, but Garcia asked for speed, then quickly backed off and drifted into the center of the track, as if to take the rest of the field wide. (as it turns out, nobody was there to be taken wide, Firing Line was disgusting, stumble or not)
As for Materiality being "over the top". Absolutely, a strong possibility. It becomes about numbers for me. AP figures 1-2 or so, not just in the win pool, but in the horizontals (which is where I mostly play). I think Materiality is 5-1 or so in both pools - will know more when the field is finalized and we see the Brooklyn - Belmont double pool on the Friday before). 50 cents on the dollar vs 5 dollars on the dollar. I don't think AP is 10 times more likely than Materiality to win. What percentage chance do you give that AP backs up, that Materiality is "over the top", etc.etc.
As for Frosted, I like him less. But he is fast. His Remsen was good. The tricky part IMO with him is that you have to really REACH for excuses this year to read his pattern. First time out, he looked like a horse that was prepping and a bit short. I went "all in" on him second time out. Turning for home, I would have accepted 3-5 on him, as Ortiz was handriding. Then absolutely empty. Maybe he lost air. At least the connections thought so. They perform the surgery. He runs a negative 2 in the Wood. A big "jump up", but not so much relative to the Remsen. Then the Derby. The only horse running late as we get a boat race. Have to admit, I like his finish less than a lot of other people do. But he did finish a bit.
To me, Frosted is the saver for a pace collapse. Collapse, meaning not necessarily a vicious pace, but one that is too fast for the distance.
I can only play "press Materiality, save Frosted".
Slugs beat me.
Rob