Re: Belmont possibles (565 Views)
Posted by:
toppled (IP Logged)
Date: May 19, 2015 10:29AM
Materiality was a bad play: Inexperience & the fact that a Pletcher horse who runs a negative prep right before the Derby is paramutual death in the Derby.
Upstart was sick a few weeks before the Derby. They can deny it all they want but if you want to think Upstart threw a bad race in and it had nothing to do with the infection, you're reaching.
So, if you could turn back the clock to 5/2/15 & run it again I'll take AP over the inexperienced, recent Pletcher negative # Materiality & the recently sick Upstart (who now that you have the hindsight should know his illness affected him on Derby day) every time. I'll also take him against Firing Line & Dortmund too, who for whatever excuse you want to make, couldn't get near him in the Preakness. Run the Derby 100 times under the same conditions and AP wins at least 95 of those times.
The best pre Derby race was run when they were 2YOs. The Frontrunner, run at Santa Anita last September. Just because it was run last year, you ignored it. One could see there that AP was special in the Frontrunner. He beats Texas Red who destroyed them all next out in the BC Juvenile, Calculator, who went on to win the Sham and San Vicente winner Lord Nelson. That was 3 subsequent graded stakes winners AP beat.
So keep running the Derby over again & you'll lose every time with your 2 horses because those 5 times out of 100 that I mentioned above would be to either Dortmund or Firing Line.