Re: Belmont possibles (663 Views)
Posted by:
ringato3 (IP Logged)
Date: May 19, 2015 02:46PM
Paul,
I am not defending chuckles' point. let him do that.
But you, of all people, shouldn't be criticizing backers of either Upstart of Materiality. I say "you of all people", because I have come on the board many times over the past couple years (mostly as a lurker) and saw you post about picking some horse that frankly I thought had no shot, because you like to beat favorites. (and some of your picks have won while you looked for "value".
Upstart, at 19-1 or whatever he was in the Derby, and Materiality, at 14-1, were bets I would take every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Yep, they lost. I don't have to be right every time when I am looking at horses like that. You have to be right almost every time when you want to bet horses that are odds on.
Upstart being "sick". I don't know. I thought TGJB was lobbying them to run in the Preakness? He had a nice sheet, great 2 year old foundation and fast numbers to run to, as well as spacing. He was horrible on Derby day. It happens.
Materiality was faster than AP heading into the Derby. On ALL NUMBERS. Not just one or two figure makers. I would have agreed that if he was a short price, with Pletcher's record and the lack of 2 year old foundation, he would be a bet against, but at 15-1, those things were MORE THAN FACTORED into the price. he stumbled out of the gate and ran OK afterwards.
And nobody that understands this game should ever say that a horse would win the Derby 95 times out of 100. That is right up there with the guy who said yesterday that Frosted undoubtedly ran the best race in the Derby, with the "eye test".
Silly stuff.
Good luck
Rob