Re: Belmont possibles (560 Views)
Posted by:
toppled (IP Logged)
Date: May 19, 2015 04:36PM
I'm a big believer in trainer stats. They're important enough for Jerry to put them on every sheet. I like to refine them further using Formulator. When someone asked who was most likely to bomb in the Preakness I answered Firing Line and backed it up with trainer stats. Baffert's Preakness stats also said AP wouldn't bomb (3/3 with Derby winners going in 4/4 coming out). FL's ardent supporters reacted the same way you just did. They said the stats were meaningless. The stats proved correct. They're a big part of the puzzle.
When a trainer has reached any category where they stand out positively or negatively, I take notice. As I said, Pletcher horses are underlays in the Derby. I've bet enough of them in past Derbys to not want another one. The one he won on was only 8/1.
I don't know why Pletcher fails so miserably in Derbys. I don't have to, the stats tell me that the probability is he won't win. If he trains the next Secretariat, I won't toss him automatically. If he trains another Materiality, I have to say let him beat me. I don't know anyone who can win betting on a horse whose trainer in that situation wins around 2% of the time. Especially when they are bet like Pletcher's horses are.