Opening Day (1293 Views)
Posted by:
FrankD. (IP Logged)
Date: July 23, 2015 10:04PM
Opening day at the Spa is an unofficial holiday for wise guys, wanna be's and per the old neighborhood loan sharks the 2nd busiest week of the year next to Christmas.
A self imposed gag order goes into effect for the next 6 weeks pertaining to NYRA and Klueless bashing; only handicapping with a splash of tough beat stories will get by the editor.
In the age of getting PP's and #'s 3 days in advance of the opening card one can suffer from paralysis by over analysis for sure. I've never seen so many 20/1 shots look soooooo good!
The first 6 races of both the Friday and Saturday cards hold little interest here.
There are some nice NYB maidens making there debut tomorrow, the Schuylerville contains all the randomness that a 2 yr old filly stake should this time of year. While after 3 days I've eliminated 2 of the 12 entered in the Lake George.
Race 1: Sea Raven has a #'s edge on the rest, of the next 5 who are all pretty tight TG wise Native Hero & Fox Rules will be good prices for an exacta play.
Race 4: The Schuylerville
With 4 of the 8 running the same number in their debut or last race, Off The Tracks will be the best price of the 4 and has a 1/2 brother who put up some nice sprint numbers at 2 and 3.
Race 7: The Pick 4
The Tea Cups won't be anything near her morning line price, Chrysolite and Lahinch Classics will be, Asperites is a must use as well. I'll press with Tea Cups and Chrysolite who has a breakout in her at a nice price.
Race 8: Juba was supposed to be a good one, obvious physcial issues have hindered his development. He was flattered by his Maiden race against Constitution at Gulf last winter, broke through in April this year at Aqueduct and was thrown right into the frying pan after that against Tonalist in the Westchester.
He is a single in here for me with a cold triple over the 3 and 4.
Race 9: The Lake George
I will have to hit the ALL button here for a small ticket, it's that tight and my hope is the shortest price and fastest of the 3 Chad Browns the 12 with JJ up will lose enough ground from out there and get bet to make the sequence a bit juicer.
I'll use 5 on my main ticket, 1,2,3,9,10 and hope the American Oaks turns out to be a key race or the 2 Motion horses run very well at big prices. the 2 has a very forward move in her and the 3 gets enough weight from faster horses to make her interesting to me.
Race10: Big Blue Talent has run 6 races so much faster than the rest in the main body of the race he could romp here. He is also the dreaded Saratoga OUCHIE with back numbers, if he is 80% of himself he romps. Kowboy Boots gets a saver play in case Big Blue doesn't make it all the way around. the 15 and 16 can be used should they draw in, especially the 16, I'm anti Jacobson until he puts up some tops, he was cold at Belmont and seems to start off very slowly here every year.
4 X 1 X 12 X 2 = $96 for a buck
4 X 1 X 5 X 2 = $40 for a buck X a few more
2 X 1 X 12 X 1 = $24 for a buck
2 X 1 X 5 X 1 = $10 for a buck X quite a few more
Good luck to everyone and I look forward to the yearly visits from so many of you T-generates I get to see every year.
Frank D.
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