Dana,

As much as I hate the Zayats for a number of reasons posted on this board (by Frank D and others during the triple crown trail), I don't see your point at all.

It isn't like they tried something "new" and went from Haskell to the Travers. For about 15 years now the best 3 year olds go either Haskell/Travers or Jim Dandy/Travers.

Yeah, on this board, which is where we are, sheet readers read "bounce". So be it.

But let's face it, sheet reading isn't exactly mainstream. A minority for sure.

I think the cross country trips may have had an effect. ("may" - no assertion)

I have been reading sheets for a lot of years and reading a pattern "as is" without looking at how the figures were earned is pretty "old school". And AP's pattern had more dimensions than most.

1. Derby was a fair race IMO. No major bias no reason to question figure.

2. Preakness was a sea of slop and he spread eagled the field. Major question mark around validity of just calling it a "3 point backward move".

3. Belmont a 1 1/2 race, which nobody runs on dirt and our breed isn't bred for. Another anomaly type figure. (not saying the figure wasn't accurate - just saying when you have things like strange distances and rainstorm/sloppy surfaces, there are OTHER reasons besides a horse's form that goes into reading a pattern.

4. A really big figure in the Haskell, run under a strangle hold late.

I don't think anybody disagrees that the Travers will be a backward move. So, take your choice:

1. He bounced off the negative 3 in the derby, ran 3 points off two races in a row and figured to bounce again off the big Haskell figure.

2. The cumulative effect of the triple crown, a number of cross country ships, the Saratoga racing surface being very different than Monmouth park, all worked together to have the horse run a sub par race.

I think #1 is WAY too simplistic and not correct in this case but certainly can't prove it. And it likely doesn't matter going forward. But I think looking at patterns without other factors doesn't work, at least when other factors exist. Things like pace, trip, distance, bias and surface (grass/dirt) are all "other factors that can exist and often do exist.

Rob