Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I'll let Boscar and Mathcapper explain what the
> odds on the Ellis Park horses should be based on
> the multi payoffs and double will pays. But based
> on the win odds which one should have paid
> more?(or what would you guess)? More sharpies in
> the late pick 4? Or Runhappy was way longer in
> the stakes pick 4?
>
> Check my math but....
>
>
> Races 8-11, 41 horses in sequence
>
> $24.60 (11) 7th choice
> $5.20 (12) Favorite
> $4.00 (8) Favorite
> $34.00 (10) 5th choice
>
> Pick 4: $9,500.00 for $2.00
> $2 parlay $2,174.64
>
> Races 10-13, 39 horses in sequence
>
> $4.00 (8) Favorite
> $34.00 (10) 5th choice
> $17.00 (9) 6th choice
> $21.40 (12) 6th choice
>
> Pick 4: $6237.00 for $2.00
> $2 parlay $6184.60

Fair,

Runhappy was 13-1 in the Will Pays, which was pretty much in line with his morning line (12-1) and final odds (11-1). Have to say that based on the 12-1 morning line, I didn’t see the so-called “smart money” in play on this horse as has been suggested, unless Eric’s line was off and the public really should have had him 20-1 or so as Boscar suspected.

The other Ellis Park horse [i]did[/i] get significant play in all the pools. Btw, the all-Ellis exacta ($358) came back right about as expected ($374) based on the two horses’ win odds using discounted Harville approach.

As for the Pick 4’s, at NYRA tracks they should generally pay around 1.53x the parlay because of the fact that you only get hit with the takeout once.

The stakes sequence (R8-R11) came up much higher than expected (4.37x) as you noted. Some could argue that a lot of players singled AP, which created a big overlay when KI KO’d him from the sequence.

But let’s suppose for a moment that Private Zone, Flintshire, and Keen Ice were all bet in the Pick 4 in the same proportion as their win odds. That would imply that Runhappy was 34-1 in the Pick 4. What’s more likely is that Runhappy was somewhere between his 13-1 tote odds and the 34-1 implied odds, and that some or all of the other three horses were also slightly underbet in the Pick 4 pool vis-a-vis their win odds.

The late Pick 4 sequence (R10-R13), at $6,185, only paid 1.01x the parlay, which is actually quite a bit [i]less[/i] than the 1.53x ($9,440) expected payout. And since this sequence also included the Travers, it's unlikely that AP getting knocked out of the sequence was the sole cause of the overlaid earlier Pick 4 payout.

The main cause of the underlaid payout in the late Pick 4 sequence appears to have been some combination of Dacita and Foxhall Drive being bet a little closer to their morning line odds than their final odds (both went off at significantly higher odds than their morning line, as Rob noted).

Rocky R