Re: King's Bishop (582 Views)
Posted by:
Topcat (IP Logged)
Date: August 31, 2015 05:42AM
Mathcapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fairmount1 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I'll let Boscar and Mathcapper explain what the
> > odds on the Ellis Park horses should be based
> on
> > the multi payoffs and double will pays. But
> based
> > on the win odds which one should have paid
> > more?(or what would you guess)? More sharpies
> in
> > the late pick 4? Or Runhappy was way longer in
> > the stakes pick 4?
> >
> > Check my math but....
> >
> >
> > Races 8-11, 41 horses in sequence
> >
> > $24.60 (11) 7th choice
> > $5.20 (12) Favorite
> > $4.00 (8) Favorite
> > $34.00 (10) 5th choice
> >
> > Pick 4: $9,500.00 for $2.00
> > $2 parlay $2,174.64
> >
> > Races 10-13, 39 horses in sequence
> >
> > $4.00 (8) Favorite
> > $34.00 (10) 5th choice
> > $17.00 (9) 6th choice
> > $21.40 (12) 6th choice
> >
> > Pick 4: $6237.00 for $2.00
> > $2 parlay $6184.60
>
> Fair,
>
> Runhappy was 13-1 in the Will Pays, which was
> pretty much in line with his morning line (12-1)
> and final odds (11-1). Have to say that based on
> the 12-1 morning line, I didn’t see the so-called
> “smart money” in play on this horse as has been
> suggested, unless Eric’s line was off and the
> public really should have had him 20-1 or so as
> Boscar suspected.
>
> The other Ellis Park horse did get significant
> play in all the pools. Btw, the all-Ellis exacta
> ($358) came back right about as expected ($374)
> based on the two horses’ win odds using discounted
> Harville approach.
>
> As for the Pick 4’s, at NYRA tracks they should
> generally pay around 1.53x the parlay because of
> the fact that you only get hit with the takeout
> once.
>
> The stakes sequence (R8-R11) came up much higher
> than expected (4.37x) as you noted. Some could
> argue that a lot of players singled AP, which
> created a big overlay when KI KO’d him from the
> sequence.
>
> But let’s suppose for a moment that Private Zone,
> Flintshire, and Keen Ice were all bet in the Pick
> 4 in the same proportion as their win odds. That
> would imply that Runhappy was 34-1 in the Pick 4.
> What’s more likely is that Runhappy was somewhere
> between his 13-1 tote odds and the 34-1 implied
> odds, and that some or all of the other three
> horses were also slightly underbet in the Pick 4
> pool vis-a-vis their win odds.
>
> The late Pick 4 sequence (R10-R13), at $6,185,
> only paid 1.01x the parlay, which is actually
> quite a bit less than the 1.53x ($9,440) expected
> payout. And since this sequence also included the
> Travers, it's unlikely that AP getting knocked out
> of the sequence was the sole cause of the overlaid
> earlier Pick 4 payout.
>
> The main cause of the underlaid payout in the late
> Pick 4 sequence appears to have been some
> combination of Dacita and Foxhall Drive being bet
> a little closer to their morning line odds than
> their final odds (both went off at significantly
> higher odds than their morning line, as Rob
> noted).
>
> Rocky R
Will only note that RH was 16-1 until deep into the wagering session . . . suddenly dropped to 12 with a few minutes left, eased slightly to 13, then closed at 11 . . . that was a signficant, concerted late move in my eyes, especially given the size of the day's pools.