Billk5300,

There are a few potential answers to this. Take your choice:

1. Sorry, but this is another horse that looks much better on PPs than thorograph. There were certainly examples of the reverse yesterday, but the TG figure this one was given for his last race looks shaky to me. I circled it on his sheet with a "???" before the race.

2. Even if you believe the last TG figure given, she was first time 4 year old back to her top. You could argue a forward move is logical next (although I still think 3-1 is short to bet this horse "on the come" if you believe his TG figure.

3. Sometimes your eyes have to play a factor. Watch her replay last time out if you haven't seen it. This track and this distance. I needed Stonetastic for a nice score and Paco Lopez hand rode around the turn, looking like a 100% winner. Unbridled Forever was shot out of a cannon late and ran her down. Nobody else making up ground. The second place horse wasn't stopping. A VERY visually impressive race at this track at this distance.

4. SHe was every public handicapper's pick. Watchmaker and others in the DRF all liked her, even with La Verdad in the race. Even Serling, who may be 1 for the meet, liked her.

I thought she would be 3-1 or so after the scratch and wasn't surprised.

Not sure how you handicap, but even though the TG figs are something I look at for every race, I look at the DRF PPs as well, along with a couple other things (bias/pace stuff). When you just look at a sheet, you often can't explain to yourself why money "appears" for a horse that looks slow to you. At a minimum, it helps you from doing too much "uh oh, smart money is showing up for the horse" and over react to it.

Good luck

Rob