Tenet Number 31 (941 Views)
Posted by:
bellsbendboy (IP Logged)
Date: September 02, 2015 11:01PM
Since there appears a hangover after the big horse got nailed, thought i'd toss out a tenet, although most of my motivation is my growing addiction to children's tales and dirty windshields.
DUMP THE MORNING LINE!!
For many here, an assertion I realize, you play on a given certain day and decide on betting that particular day, perhaps even a week in advance. Further assuming you purchase the DRF, online, at least in California you get the past performances morning line free!
If you are a competent player you will come to relish being unencumbered by anothers' opinion. To be fair, the person making the line has you over a barrel, but on average these folks take thirty seconds to weight/assign ML's a race and make errors.
Sadly, there is no data for those types who will clamor for such, I cannot cite or provide much, other than I am a consistent winning player and strive to buy my forms before the track 'capper does his work.
Years ago the Red Mile ran an April meet with programs and no morning line and had to stop because people complained; you could play every race offered that meet with very solid opportunity.
More than a few will disregard this post as prattle and across the street it will fly over their collective heads, but test it yourself.
By any measure weight carried is an essential handicapping tool; so download a form with a handicap race and have a subordinate mark out the weights assigned. "Cap the heat using your usual methods ( form, pace, TG, bris (hopefully not, turf rail, track condition, etc.) and assign your own weight. After a handful of races if your personal assigned weights are more (on average) than 1.5 pounds off per horse you are likely in the bottom twenty percent of people that regularly bet. bbb
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