Looking for a little help on a few opportunities @ SAR on Fri. Not interested in horizontals.That would be the domain of FrankD and others What I want to do is concentrate on perceived overlay opportunities and not necessary restricted to the win position.

I'll mention a couple of suspect races and individuals in my analysis.

[b]Race #1[/b]
First of all an $83K MSW turf sprint in Sep must certainly attract an odd lot and I think that could be the case here. Three firsters who have taken their time to get to the races tells me each of these have had issues. #5 [u]Bow Tie Boss[/u] now switching to the turf after some R&R to recover from what appears a serious case of seconditis. #6 [u]Ready For You[/u] outran his price at first asking but, for me, connections don't inspire confidence. The other two lightly raced pair look to be experts at abbreviated campaigns.

Padua's [u]#4 Take Cover[/u] ran well enough to win, as the favorite, in May. Not sure what Satish had in mind with the name guessing it could be behavior related considering the previous race comments. That last race raises some doubts but I think the crowd will toss it and support Mott & JV doubtful @ 5/1 and an overlay to me at that price as I assign 30% win probability. The other horse [u]#7 Path Dependant[/u] in what I labeled the lightly raced group is one of those with enough early speed to get into the race fair to expect a jump up 2nd time 3 y/o M/l seems an underlay @ 3/1. Where I see horses that should have won by now the crowd sees the best speed figures.

Of the first time starters [u]#2 Rootformejustin[/u] seems to be working well but why is Terranova a 16% trainer winning at only 6% with 66 1st time starters. Makes me wonder, of course he is getting a 5lbs wgt advantage and this is the last weekend. After witnessing Justin's act a couple of times recently I just can't root for him. But 8/1 on a horse that I suspect has some ability leads me to a potential conflict between owner & trainer. [u]#1 Chiltern Street[/u] can be bet strictly on connections I suppose, 4/1 could be a steal yet as someone posted elsewhere.... J. Englehart, [u]#3 Honorable Daniel[/u], is having unexpected success, albeit mostly dirt I think, this is another that could be fast. Was working well in South Florida headed for a GP debut when evidently something went wrong. The trainer (imo) not above attempting to surprise and the 15/1 m/l is based on ?

[i]This race reminds me of a MSW on Travers Day where the TG analysis pointed out that a perennial also ran had a series of recent figures all of which would probably win I went against and fav won in a photo by a nose @ 2/1 I think. Although my choice in that race #8 lost his mind in the post parade and I just cancelled in time.[/i]

[b]Race #2[/b]
[u]#8 Powerofone[/u] is an odd entry? Price c/b a lot juicier than m/l but not for me.

[b]Race #4[/b]
[u]#5 Royal Posse[/u] nice to have Castellano & Rodriquez on your team. 8/1 and the horse doesn't know it's a Stakes race. But can they keep him together for a third successive race?

[b]Race #6[/b]
Not a Schlosberg fan but doesn't [u]#9 Southern Sunshine[/u] 8/1 have as much a chance to win as the favorites?

[b]Race #8[/b]
[u]#13 Right On Kitten[/u] 6/1 a stat player special Maker 24% shipper with a back # or speed failing on the inner turf according to another poster on this board. Looks worth $35k as a broodmare prospect.

A little color commentary to kick off a big holiday weekend be safe! and Good Luck All