MJ,

I think the cutback helps Frosted. I could make a case that he wins at 1 1/8 in the Travers and the extra distance did him no good.

As for Upstart, that is an impossible case to make. Horse has run well for less than a mile his last 3 starts. To me he has the classic look of a horse that is just off form. Still looks good in workouts, because he is a fast horse, but then he gets in a race and packs it in after less than a mile. I am sure I am going to put him in the winner's circle, but I wouldn't take 20-1 on him.

I think 1 1/8 is stretching it for Gimmedalute, but he certainly seems to have a better shot there than I would ever give him at 1 1/4. The problem with him, I think, is that I don't think the price will be there. He is 5-1 ML, which I would take in a heartbeat, but I think 3-1 is what he goes off at. There just aren't too many horses to bet. Madefromlucky at 9/2 and Upstart at 9/2 look like foolish morning lines. Would bet almost anything that Gimmedalute goes off shorter than both.

Rob