How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (1048 Views)
Posted by:
banditbeau (IP Logged)
Date: September 22, 2015 10:52PM
As I mentioned a few days ago Fairmounts inquiry about Canterbury's recent meet and their numbers coincided with a note I sent to them about as Miff noted "racings 3 T's - takeout,testing,and transparency. I used most of the note to try to get them to at least consider reducing their takeout. As MJ noted, they have a cherry of a deal that lasts 6 more years. The have a card room, their daily handle of about $720k and about $10/day of concessions per paid admission (ave - 6700/day) pays for the current $120k/day in purses, and the topper, they are in the 4th year of a 10 year $75 million purse enhancement deal with a nearby casino, that appears to essentially amount to a no-compete clause for any other type of gaming. This combination guarantees them it seems a profit, at least until the purse enhancement deal dies. With that backdrop, I tried to impress upon them that racing is going the way of blackjack at casino's. (see 2 link articles below) Plus as these articles mention, racing has a double negative when it comes to any savvy bettor - to many decisions to make in wagering, combined with way to high takeout. With less than 3% of the wagering dollar now going to racing, down from 100% as short a time ago as the late 60's, racings fate seems sealed without major changes, which include lower takeout as #1 priority from our list of 3 T's. And,Canterbury is the only track in the country with the wherewithal to give it a shot. I used Tavasco's number, (I think it was his note), that casino's have figured out the 8% range as the optimum rake (up from the 6% range not to long ago - coincidence I guess that casino's have closed with that change??), and that if it worked for them that it seemed that would be the ceiling for any track to compete, especially given the learning curve compared to a slot machine. Surprisingly, they not only responded, but also called and talked about the suggestions for nearly an hour, and left me with a couple of questions and a "I will call you back" to talk more if that's OK! Every issue he mentioned as a concern has for the most part been discussed on this board, including the idea of the effect on the whales, which luckily I argued as JB did today that they were looking at it all wrong. I suggested 8% takeout on everything and pointed out how IF this worked, and their handle went from $720k/day to $2 million per day, they break even. Big jump I know, but, if successful, they not only take care of all the regional competition in the entire Midwest, but also any other track they run against. And, if they stay status quo, they will show a profit until the purse share agreement runs out, at which time every investor in the company will rightfully question what they did with $75 million over the past 10 years to project a favorable future? I am sure there are arguments against it, but the bottom line is they will remain in the lower third of the HANA rankings, run maybe Arlington out of business, and put a hurt on Prairie Meadows before the cash runs out in a few years, as each lacks their purse agreement, but really it seems almost negligent to not at least TRY it in some form. In the end, their question was, and I pose it to you, how much would you guess an 8% take on all wagers, would move the handle. They have a great turf course, one of the safest dirt tracks in the country, and a backstretch that appears to be as good if not better than the rest of the country -it was built in the late 80's. They averaged over 8 entries per race, so field size was good. I told them I depend on Thoro-Graph along with other data but that very few if any other TG users would look at Cby regularly given their current low pool totals and high takeout.They asked to actually talk to JB and any other large bettors that might influence them. Thus their first question - IF, IF they were to lower the rake to the 8-10% range on all or some pools, what impact what be felt?
http://pullthepocket.blogspot.com/2015/09/millenial-gamblers-hats-clubs-action-or.html
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/02/28/the-death-of-blackjack-and-what-games-are-replacin.aspx