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How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (1048 Views)
Posted by: banditbeau (IP Logged)
Date: September 22, 2015 10:52PM

As I mentioned a few days ago Fairmounts inquiry about Canterbury's recent meet and their numbers coincided with a note I sent to them about as Miff noted "racings 3 T's - takeout,testing,and transparency. I used most of the note to try to get them to at least consider reducing their takeout. As MJ noted, they have a cherry of a deal that lasts 6 more years. The have a card room, their daily handle of about $720k and about $10/day of concessions per paid admission (ave - 6700/day) pays for the current $120k/day in purses, and the topper, they are in the 4th year of a 10 year $75 million purse enhancement deal with a nearby casino, that appears to essentially amount to a no-compete clause for any other type of gaming. This combination guarantees them it seems a profit, at least until the purse enhancement deal dies. With that backdrop, I tried to impress upon them that racing is going the way of blackjack at casino's. (see 2 link articles below) Plus as these articles mention, racing has a double negative when it comes to any savvy bettor - to many decisions to make in wagering, combined with way to high takeout. With less than 3% of the wagering dollar now going to racing, down from 100% as short a time ago as the late 60's, racings fate seems sealed without major changes, which include lower takeout as #1 priority from our list of 3 T's. And,Canterbury is the only track in the country with the wherewithal to give it a shot. I used Tavasco's number, (I think it was his note), that casino's have figured out the 8% range as the optimum rake (up from the 6% range not to long ago - coincidence I guess that casino's have closed with that change??), and that if it worked for them that it seemed that would be the ceiling for any track to compete, especially given the learning curve compared to a slot machine. Surprisingly, they not only responded, but also called and talked about the suggestions for nearly an hour, and left me with a couple of questions and a "I will call you back" to talk more if that's OK! Every issue he mentioned as a concern has for the most part been discussed on this board, including the idea of the effect on the whales, which luckily I argued as JB did today that they were looking at it all wrong. I suggested 8% takeout on everything and pointed out how IF this worked, and their handle went from $720k/day to $2 million per day, they break even. Big jump I know, but, if successful, they not only take care of all the regional competition in the entire Midwest, but also any other track they run against. And, if they stay status quo, they will show a profit until the purse share agreement runs out, at which time every investor in the company will rightfully question what they did with $75 million over the past 10 years to project a favorable future? I am sure there are arguments against it, but the bottom line is they will remain in the lower third of the HANA rankings, run maybe Arlington out of business, and put a hurt on Prairie Meadows before the cash runs out in a few years, as each lacks their purse agreement, but really it seems almost negligent to not at least TRY it in some form. In the end, their question was, and I pose it to you, how much would you guess an 8% take on all wagers, would move the handle. They have a great turf course, one of the safest dirt tracks in the country, and a backstretch that appears to be as good if not better than the rest of the country -it was built in the late 80's. They averaged over 8 entries per race, so field size was good. I told them I depend on Thoro-Graph along with other data but that very few if any other TG users would look at Cby regularly given their current low pool totals and high takeout.They asked to actually talk to JB and any other large bettors that might influence them. Thus their first question - IF, IF they were to lower the rake to the 8-10% range on all or some pools, what impact what be felt?

http://pullthepocket.blogspot.com/2015/09/millenial-gamblers-hats-clubs-action-or.html

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/02/28/the-death-of-blackjack-and-what-games-are-replacin.aspx



Subject Written By Posted
How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (1048 Views) banditbeau 09/22/2015 10:52PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (497 Views) Sandreadis 09/23/2015 08:15AM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (581 Views) mjellish 09/23/2015 10:35AM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (519 Views) miff 09/23/2015 11:19AM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (582 Views) mjellish 09/23/2015 11:43AM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (573 Views) miff 09/23/2015 12:19PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (599 Views) MonmouthGuy 09/23/2015 12:30PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (628 Views) TGJB 09/23/2015 12:34PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (506 Views) MonmouthGuy 09/23/2015 12:36PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (497 Views) miff 09/23/2015 12:41PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (421 Views) Wrongly 09/24/2015 09:22AM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (503 Views) miff 09/24/2015 09:49AM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (494 Views) moosepalm 09/23/2015 12:47PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (591 Views) TGJB 09/23/2015 12:23PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (505 Views) Topcat 09/23/2015 03:18PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (467 Views) Wild Again 09/24/2015 12:00AM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (464 Views) miff 09/24/2015 09:33AM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (474 Views) Wild Again 09/25/2015 12:06AM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (412 Views) miff 09/25/2015 08:27AM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (475 Views) Boscar Obarra 09/30/2015 06:02PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (482 Views) TGJB 09/30/2015 06:04PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (439 Views) Boscar Obarra 09/30/2015 08:29PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (483 Views) TGJB 10/01/2015 04:46PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (594 Views) TGJB 09/23/2015 12:30PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (526 Views) MonmouthGuy 09/23/2015 12:33PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (518 Views) Topcat 09/23/2015 03:20PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (396 Views) TempletonPeck 09/23/2015 11:35PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout move the handle? (400 Views) TempletonPeck 09/23/2015 11:36PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout make you willing to win less or lose more (455 Views) BitPlayer 09/26/2015 11:39PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout make you willing to win less or lose more (450 Views) Topcat 09/27/2015 05:29AM
Re: How much would 8% takeout make you willing to win less or lose more (420 Views) BitPlayer 09/27/2015 08:04AM
Re: How much would 8% takeout make you willing to win less or lose more (438 Views) P-Dub 09/27/2015 01:47PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout make you willing to win less or lose more (443 Views) Boscar Obarra 09/27/2015 01:59PM
Re: How much would 8% takeout make you willing to win less or lose more (512 Views) miff 09/28/2015 10:55AM


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