Rick B. Wrote:
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> Borrowing the ROTW style for analysis of a neat
> little race on what should be crisp and beautiful
> Fall day in Chicago:
>
> Wireless Future (8-1) fired big to get back to
> lifetime top after 4+ months off. Short rest is a
> concern but this one has early speed and the rail
> on what will be a firm and fast turf course; might
> forget to stop. Trainer switch from Amoss to C.
> Richard is not a concern. Live at a price.
>
> Mission Drives (10-1) is a healthy horse that can
> run the same numbers over and again, with decent
> spacing...but hasn't improved one inch in months,
> and no reason to expect different now. Minors
> only.
>
> Nun the Less (12-1) bounced miserably as the
> slight favorite in a stake at Canterbury, but
> returns to Chicago for home cooking under top
> notch Chicago trainer Chris Block. Has already run
> as fast as the fastest ones in here. Expecting
> huge effort from this contender and today's Live
> Longshot.
>
> Lucky Lindy (15-1) has shown slight improvement
> with each race this year, and is a tricky read:
> how much juice is left in the lemon? Trainer Mark
> Frostad shows a solid Thoro-Pattern with 67% pairs
> or tops. Canadian horses have done well in Chicago
> grass stakes over the last ten years. Solid
> contender on best.
>
> It's peculiar for Bill Mott to ship an obvious
> 3rd-stringer such as Net Gain (15-1). I keep
> checking back to see what I am not seeing in this
> horse. Can't find it. Toss.
>
> Maker trainee Granny's Kitten (8-1) just got back
> to lifetime top and is a touch slow. ITM shot on
> best.
>
> Syntax (8-1) is another puzzling shipper from Bill
> Mott that hasn't improved since his late winter
> 3YO debut at Gulfstream. Another toss...sure feels
> like I'm asking for trouble throwing out both Mott
> trainees.
>
> Three of Saham's (4-1) last 4 races are good
> enough to win this and he will be the post-time
> favorite, but definitely vulnerable here.
> Nonetheless he is a must use as there are no real
> knocks against him.
>
> Nucifera (9-2) was pretty ordinary in lone U.S.
> try. Another tricky read that is hard to use, and
> hard to toss. The long gaps are NOT a good sign --
> this one might have ouchie feet.
>
> Belemor (30-1) is a maiden but is stakes-placed on
> Poly and just might relish today's added distance.
> Could clunk up for a piece; remember the words of
> Barry Meadow: "...even Living Filth can stumble
> home for 3rd".
>
> One Go All Go (6-1) has a tight pattern after a
> long layoff. Has won both tries at age 3 -- is he
> another one of these "just runs fast enough to
> win" types? Bad post for his running style,
> though, and I don't think he sees the wood all
> day. Slightly nervous about throwing him out.
>
> Chip Leader (20-1) is the "X Factor" horse here;
> if that last number is accurate, look out because
> trainer Louie Roussel often gets repeat efforts,
> and this one is lightly raced with the look of a
> late developer.
>
> Flashy Jewel (30-1) is also eligible and if he
> gets in, is thought to only be a rabbit for
> stablemate Nun the Less. Non-contender.
>
>
>
> SUMMARY
>
> Hard to pin down a single win bet here so I'll
> just go with the longest of Wireless Future, Nun
> the Less, Lucky Lindy and Chip Leader for the win,
> then box those 4 in the exacta.
>
> Then, key Saham 1st and 2nd in the trifecta with
> the above 4, and others in the 2nd and 3rd spots
> as needed (thank God for 50 cent tris). Don't
> forget Belemor!


Looking at your astute analysis of the Hawthorne Derby as well as your call on Churchill invader Lady Fog Horn this past weekend, am curious what you think of the Indiana Bred 3 yo invader in the Commonwealth Turf against many of the same horses from the Hawthorne Derby. Forecast is 90% chance of rain on the day of the race (but sunny and 60s in three days leading up to race). Rainfall forecasted at 0.25 inch.