Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (580 Views)
Posted by:
Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: November 06, 2015 11:04PM
moosepalm Wrote:
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> Here's the chart.
>
> http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/MVR110415
> USA9.pdf
>
>
> I guess people are going to see what they want to
> see. I've been around Finger Lakes long enough to
> know that no pool is too small for someone to try
> to tilt. But, you're not going to have ten guys
> walking out with suitcases full of money. Maybe
> Mathcapper can tell us if any of these pools look
> hinky.
The exotic pools at these smaller tracks obviously won't correlate as well to the win pools (which are generally the most efficient) because the pools are so small.
Having said that, it's pretty clear that the winner was nowhere near 110-1 in the exotics, because if you go strictly off the win odds, the exacta should've paid twice what it did, the tri [u]15x[/u] what it did and the super more than 4x.
Without having handicapped the race, it's hard to say whether or not the horse's fair odds really should've been 110-1, but what the exotic payouts imply for the winning combos is that he was around 50-1 in the ex pool, 6-1(!) in the tri, and 25-1 in the super.
- Rocky