Re: Computer-Robotic Wagering (898 Views)
Posted by:
Boscar Obarra (IP Logged)
Date: November 21, 2015 11:45PM
The hysteria in the financial markets, much of it justified, over HFT (High Frequency Trading) makes the discussion here look like a tea party (no, not THAT Tea Party).
If that case, HFT has an actual concrete edge over other participants, a structural edge, like KNOWING who would have the lead at the 1/4 pole before the race.
In racing, all bets are in before the gate springs, so it's knowing the odds at the bell that they seem to be concerned with. I suspect that most players would fare little better if they knew the final odds, vs the current approximation they work with.
Easy enough to test. Keep track of your minimum acceptable price, and see what the p&l is on only those runners that meet it, vs. all the bets that were placed. We'll assume all bets are placed late, just not knowing the FINAL price. There's really no way for the bots to know the exact FINAL price either, except for the fact that they know who they're betting and that those odds will be depressed.
I've made the point, that the early odds on the tote have nothing to do with what the final odds will look like. That juicy price on the obvious contender is usually a tease. You'll never (or rarely) get it.