First of I'd like to say this weeks race choice really interests me. If we keep repeating this lesson I may yet get it. Worthy of note the analysis is not trying to beat both of the m/l favorites which are the fast horses on TG ratings.

Yet it does seem that this might be a good opportunity to do just that. Certainly there would be value? Neither of the top two, as the analysis points out, are durable types. If they both fail - chaos - with a group of horses any of which can run a 3.

The analysis suggests tossing what looks to me to be the fastest horse, on the premise that generally horses that run well off a layoff (psyche as ouchy) tend to subsequently tail off. I can't help but notice that San Onofre's (a popular San Clemente surfing location) trainer excels @ racing off a long rest. But objectively this one doesn't have to backup and could regress some and still run a number good enough to win. OK 4/5 and maybe less is not an ideal price but imho it reflects the opinion that this one has to run a poor race to lose and believing he will seems to go against the grain and I guess that's a big part of the angle.

Sunday Rules, the filly, and the second choice getting a point or more in weight certainly seems the best of the rest on her top. While she is twice the price of the favorite on the morning line @9/5, but as the analysis points out does have value in all but one exacta combination capturing all of those $'s wagered on the favorite. Note - for me writing i.e., reiterating my understanding of the analysis helps me to consider and understand the rationale. Add in to the mix that D'Amato is off to a good start at this meet suggesting this one is well intended.

As one who speculates on race dynamics I expect P. Millers charge Richards Boy and Pay The Fine from O'Neills barn to attend the filly's pace. Assuming they can't go all the way with her the advantage of a short field is that it leaves me only Solid Wager (Miller's uncoupled entry), Old Man Lake (odd spot) or Raised A Secret to jump up or stumble up into the exacta for a payday.

Wondering if I would get approximately the same value in a Tri having San Onofre running down the pacesetters to win, playing each of the three front runners in the two hole and my three stumble ups in third.

Thanks for the ROTW analysis on my own I just would not have regarded the filly as valuable. I doubt I can get comfortable enough to play this race but good luck to those that do!