Weather s/b be dry partly cloudy and near 50 degrees.

[b]Nickname[/b] pressed the pace in no less than the BCJF chasing [b]Songbird[/b] & [b]Rachel's Valentina[/b] before fading to 4th. Previously she won the G1 Frizette @ BEL by tracking the pace then pulling away in the stretch to win convincingly. Asmussen has a good sized fan club in this neck of the woods. Yet the m/l is 8/5? I would not be surprised if she goes off @ 1/2 that. This one is tailor made for mob hysteria. So what the crowd values carries no weight with the TG analysis but the weight carried warrants a minus. Note - last spring more than a little discussion on this board about a line of repeating tops +/- waiting to jump up or unable to improve? Rested for 3 months and didn't really fire first out @ SAR. A $100K stakes the first step in what looks like a promising 3 y/o campaign. No cinch this filly is set to fire first out and you don't win on reputation. Yet I think I would take even money that this filly wins more purse money in 2016 than any of the others.

To make money you either beat this one or run second and/or third with pricey others. Don't envision this one off the board like last week, but one never knows.

The analysis ID's two that could win, Dorodansa or Lovable Lyss

Looking at the race from from what I believe to be the crowd's perspective and contrasts:

[b]Dorodansa[/b] by Bellamy Road, who remember was precocious. This one started slow (no wonder she hasn't gone back) just jumped up 4 pts and now with not too much rest tries to cash in on her improving form. @ m/l 4/1 and unlikely to improve ? value for me. Complicated by I project this one to come from off the pace and will lose as much ground as she gets in weight. Hoping her price drifts up but overall see her more likely to run second behind a firing favorite which will get more than 4/1.

[b]Lovable Lyss[/b] @ m/l of 8/1 has a price reflecting some projected doubt from the myopic crowd. The analysis attributes the last race to a bounce, now coming back on little rest carries doubt for a full recovery yet IMO a fair proposition at the expected price. My issue with this one is that she got outrun early in her last, could not keep pace and failed to contend. Starting from the outside with a short run to the turn with speed inside her I expect this one to also lose as much ground as she gets in weight.

[b]RED FERN DOLL[/b] The one horse with a big m/l doesn't seem to have any merits other than she made up lots of ground into a slow pace on the turf to win @ 27/1 last out. Missed that one! The puzzle is why she is entered here not unreasonable that she could run 4th with too many who all want to lead the race early. Yet few 30/1 and possibly more, come with obvious merits. Young horses do jump up. Change of surface also occasionally produces jump ups.

[b]MARQUEE MISS[/b] Cowboy Cal not my first choice as a sire whose get improve with distance. Another filly which wants the lead IMO. I see a recovery line off her fast first out maiden win. I would actually anticipate a new top for this one if the race were a sprint. But @ m/l 10/1 this is where I see value both over and under the expected favorite.

[b]MY MASTER PLAN[/b] @ 6/1 has never run fast enough to compete with these so she hasn't been beating much what I do like is that she can pass horses so will probably get a ground saving trip behind the quick starters. Off her line a jump up here would not surprise and the Von Hemel/Loveberry connection accustomed to OP success. Her unbeaten record probably depresses her price my optimism likes her in the 3rd slot.

[b]Ready To Confess[/b] @ 6/1 has flourished since stretching out. Likes the front in routes but couldn't sprint. This one's line looks healthy to me yet is of course a bounce candidate off her improvement. May not be a need to lead type off her slow pace times and since Von Hemel has two in here I'm thinking strategic options are available which he sends (if either) is a puzzle. One or the other gets a good ground saving trip. So Von Hemel is key to my trifecta combinations.

[b]Durango[/b] @ 9/2 no negatives I see but as the analysis points out a question about the distance. I opt for no, she could not run down the speed in her last but her line says healthy to me. Maybe the slower pace of a route works to her benefit. Hot trainers always a plus one of those damned if you do damned if you don't horses?

While the ROTW analysis again makes good sense to me I just don't see enough potential in the suggested win bets. I'll watch the exacta prices carefully but the key for me is how badly the crowd hammers the favorite because I get she is beatable yet I expect her to be in the vertical mix.

Thanks again for the effort put into the analysis educational, often valuable and always fun to kibbitz over.