I've spent an inordinate amount of time on this years derby for still being 2 weeks out. Usually by this time most of us have somewhat of a plan. We wait on final works, breeze's over the track and the ever important draw.

We have 10 horses who have run TG 2 or less at some point and 4 horses coming in with extremely juicy patterns. (Exaggerator,Creator, Whitmore & Outwork) In looking at the race vertically you can make a solid case for 12-14 horses to get into the tri and super!

I'll be having a long chat with my pace guru Miff about the pace scenario for sure but most would agree that Danzig Candy should be on the engine with Outwork and Nyquist in close pursuit. Post position, a blinker adjustment, or a jocks decision to go could alter or add to the pace equation.

At this point the only thing I know are there are a few I will toss from the top spot and I few I'll not use at all in verticals from the fast bunch. Brody, Sam and Shagaf interest me on the bottom of my vertical tickets.

I cannot use Nyquist on top in any way shape or form, if he beats me he beats me.
He will be a 7/2 ish favorite,several horses have run faster, he has not broken through his 2 year old top and his pattern is consistent but non spectacular.
He is undefeated, should be forwardly placed avoiding trouble, I don't have a lot of confidence in his jock getting into a pace chess game. Yeah I know what's next, Mario has won 2 triple crown races, my response to that is so has Ronny Franklin.My use of Nyquist will be in 3rd and 4th spots only. A decision based 98% on price and TG numbers.

Creator and Whitmore come in with 2 very explosive patterns screaming out forward move good enough to win this year.My knock on both is they earned their past 2 numbers carrying 115 & 118 a far cry from 126. Many of the fast ones have carried 122-124 in their preps. Does the Arkansas duets pattern look as good adding more weight? Suddenbreakingnews could be hindered in traffic and 6 wide turning for home can't get to the top here IMHO. None of these are winners on my tickets but again all vertical possibilities for sure.

All of the Louisiana bunch is simply too slow and I hope Mo Tom goes and sucks up a lot of money. Whomever said he could be a 5th betting choice is a bit delusional.

Danzig Candy and both Pletchers are complete tosses for me on all tickets. Mike Smith after Palace Malice and a few other big races the last few years has some suicidal tendencies on the front end. Destin is trying something impossible without foundation going 10 furlongs off 8 weeks rest. Outwork without a 2 yr old foundation and after a gut wrenching Wood will be up against it.

I've now eliminated 7 of the 10 fast ones from the top spot leaving Exaggerator, Mohaymen and Moi Spirit. Of the 3 I like Moi Spirit the least on top but his workman like grinding of 12.2's equates to a 2:02 ish derby and he is an absolute must use in verticals probably a key in the 10-15/1 range. Mohaymen's fast work gave me some optimism, ok toss the Florida Derby, fast at 2, as highly thought of as Nyquist before that race.I can see Mohaymen possibly winning, definitely in the vertical mix and at least 10/1. A value play? I thought so until I heard Kiaran on Mark Cusano's show on Capital OTB yesterday. He made every excuse in the book not only for Mo but for Frosted in Dubai as well! They both were wide, both hated the track, both were doing great before their races, expected both to win and per KM draw a line through both of their races and he says he has lost no confidence in Mo at all!!!!! GEESH! I don't like that he is only working twice in 5 weeks and admitted the 46.4 was not by design, wanted a heavy 47 or right at 48 and his next work would simply be a 4 furlong breeze in 48 ish ?

It's no great secret to many veterans of the board that I'm a Kent Desormeaux fan through his train wreck of a personal and professional life I still have immense respect for his talent that IMHO makes him a top 10 all time jock. I also have an affinity for the Cajun horse folks. They all have a passion for the game, the horse, to compete and like to wager a dollar or 2. I spent quite a bit of time in New Orleans in 84-85 and made a very good friend who was half Italian and half Cajun, what a combo! Anyway Norman took me to Evangeline & Jefferson Downs and served as an interpreter :) I'm rooting as a fan for the brothers D. It doesn't hurt that Exaggerator's sheet looks muy bueno to me and if it rains? Forget About It! He is my most likely winner at this point and a definite key in the top 2 spots.

BUT:
With 2 weeks ago anything and everything is certainly subject to change.

Good luck to all trying to solve this years Sunday NY Times puzzle,

Frank D.