I was contemplating the secret to the success of Nyquist. First thought, who has he beat? Swipe five times. Second thought everyone else he has faced. Was the BC Juvenile that weak a group? Was the Florida Derby that weak.

Time to separate myself from the astute handicappers. Not saying I would bet Nyquist at the expected price. But I see a couple of grey areas that I'll take a contrary view to.

1. The FL derby. Curious about the pace adjusted #'s. If adjusting for weight makes sense and adjusting for ground loss makes sense. Then why doesn't adjusting for pace make sense? Looks to me that he just ran his competition off their feet. In fact that is the secret of his success imo.

2. Hasn't been mentioned yet but sure to come up - Forestry. His dam's sire. We remember what a brilliant sprinter he was and what he has sired. But wait, it wasn't so much that Forestry lacked stamina rather he was so brilliant he turned down Sprint Street. Had he raced beyond being the favorite in the BC Sprint, at the end of his 3 y/o season vs the likes of Artax, Kona Gold & Big Jag we could have seen some two turn competitiveness in addition to the Haskell. Many assume poor stamina because of the thought speed & stamina are mutually exclusive.

I don't imagine Danzing Candy getting an easy lead or much of a lead at all. If planning to outrun Forestry I mean Nyquist for a mile in splits that allow for anything other than staggering home. Only one candidate for out quicking Nyquist any other that ends up winning will have to catch and pass him from a distance and that is why he will go off favored. The Gap between the pacesetters and the closers will be enormous. With so many greys it will be hard to tell who is who the last quarter mile.

Is a fast paced performance # more of less likely to win vs a slow paced ground loss included equal performance #? Pace being [u]only[/u] relevant to ground loss is a difficult concept for me to believe.

This years derby sure is shaping up to be a terrific betting opportunity. Kev. Looks like Frank Conversation may go on the lawn in the All American in a race prior to the run for the roses.

I'm gonna go look thru the archives for the slowest # to ever win the FL derby. Usually the winners @GP run to fast and fail in Ky a new excuse needed this year unless the irresistible crowd is correct about Nyquiist?