I tend to agree, with the possible exception being that he has a well-publicized incredible workout, along the lines of Orb's, on Friday...

For comparison's sake, fav/2nd choice in the last few years (2nd included just for some frame of reference):

2015: AP final odds 2.9/1, Dortmund 4.3/1
2014: Chrome 2.5/1, Wicked Strong 6.5/1
2013: Orb 5.4/1, Revolutionary 6.4/1
2012: Bodemeister 4.2/1, Union Rags 5.1/1
2011: Dialed in 5/1, Pants on Fire 8/1
2010: Lookin at Lucky 6.3/1, Super Saver 8/1
2009: Friesan Fire 3.8/1, Dunkirk 5.2/1
2008: Big Brown 2.4/1, Colonel John 4.7/1

I went back to Big Brown just to get another 5/2 horse in there. Obviously it isn't unheard of to get a 5/2 favorite in the Derby, but it takes some doing.