Re: mr obrien (414 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: May 18, 2004 01:34PM
1-- Turf horses bounce much less than dirt horses, and run a much higher percentage of tops.
2-- He had handled big numbers in the past without falling apart, and this number was only slightly better. And there was a definite possibility that he was a "new" horse off the layoff, especially on turf.
I don't buy into the "hard ridden" stuff-- they are almost all hard ridden, even if they are not for the last 5% of the race. The short rest lowered the percentage chance for a repeat, but much less than if this was a dirt race (see 1). On balance he was at least 25% to win the race, making him a great bet at the price-- I put him up as a bet at 6-1 or more. And I bet too much in pick 4's, not enough straight. Of course, if one of 6 other horses had won the Preakness I wouldn't be saying that.
TGJB