I guess I'll take the other side (I'm leaving out #2, 3, and 4, because I tend to agree on those):

> 1. Powerful pattern.

Agree, the pattern looks nice. Steady improvement, paired tops, and 6 weeks into this. But, how much more do you think he's ready to improve? What do you think it takes to win this race? A 1 with a good trip? Maybe even a 0?

In the case of Gun Runner, he'd only improved 1.5 points from his 2yo top, and his sire's average improvement from 2 to 3 was 3.5 points, so a person could very reasonably hope for another 2 point improvement (which is what you got, 2.25 actually). But, with Cherry Wine, he has already improved 2.75 points. His sire is new (so sample size is very small and probably not at all reliable, but it's what we have), but gets only a 1.5 point improvement from 2 to 3. So, it's much less reasonable to expect such a big jump forward.

Even still, let's say that we give him the same 2.75 jump that Gun Runner got, so that means he runs a 2.5. That still leaves him many lengths behind many of these, doesn't it?

> 5. Unlike Gun Runner, you're getting a good price
>
> Horse is definitely an overlay.

He's about 20/1 last I saw.

6 of the 10 other horses in the race have a faster top this year. Of course, some figure to get a worse trip, and some maybe even significantly worse, but there are 4 horses that are four (or more!) points faster than this guy... So now you're asking a horse to improve a lot, and you need 3-4 others to not run their best (when at least 1-2 have every right to run their best, if not new tops)... A high price isn't always a good price.

By comparison, awesome speed has twice run 2 points faster than Cherry Wine ever has, and is a little better than 2x the price...