Throwing some red board @#$%& against the wall:

1. Some of the workout tout sheet guys were all over Tom's Ready and hey, blinkers off!
2. There's a possibility that La Derby was faster than what Jerry had it.


Also, here's something I use in my handicapping that I don't see a lot talked about here and I would like Jerry's thoughts:

Sharp Azteca.

Ran a 1.5 six weeks ago, basically a pair-up from what he has been running. But this 1.5 figure is based on the final time of the Pat Day Mile. What if we based it on the 7 furlong split of the Pat Day Mile? 1:20.95. Catalina Red got a -2.25 in the 7f CD Stakes ran earlier on the card. 1:20.79. Cat Red was two paths wider, but was she 3.75 points faster than Sharp Azteca that day just because Sharp Azteca had to limp home another furlong? They both did 6f in nearly identical times. 1:08.

Sharp Azteca clearly ran a majority segment of that race that was much faster that day than his figure given. A big new top that day would make him a candidate to retreat yesterday. A pair up (that he was given) makes him look very unbeatable yesterday. In my mind, he clearly ran a big new punishing top on Derby day. The TG data does not properly capture Sharp Azteca's performance.

This is a textbook case of why extreme pace situations have to be factored in when looking at figures.