Joe B.

I realize you put a caveat out there saying you wanted to see the draw but curious as to why you would short list the ones you did? (translation - makes no sense to me! Which, the way my Saratoga meet has gone, means you are likely to win....)

My initial thoughts:

There is a pretty long history of horses running big figures and races at the Haskell and then shipping to the Spa and not running as well at a 1 1/4 on the more tiring track. I think there are a few reasons for that - Monmouth generally a glib, speed favoring surface, whereas Saratoga races at 1 1/8 and 1 1/4 require real stamina. Milers can get 1 1/8 at Monmouth whereas they have no shot at the Spa. Plus, the good old "trip over the track" thing plays out well.

That said, we are in a different position this year IMO, which complicates matters. By most measures, the Jim Dandy was a horrendous race. Destin was awful with a good trip, Mohaymen stumbled, but certainly ran like a horse that was an early developer and now the cutback to 7 furlongs is a mixed message. Governor Malibu ran OK, but hardly inspiring by my eye. I missed the wedding with Laoban and have no plans to attend the funeral.

so, that leaves two other groups to look at, the Haskell runners and "other Saratoga preps" runners.

I have to let Exaggerator beat me. Training poorly at the Spa last month, then gets slop and a hot pace again and jogs in the Haskell. Dry track, 1 1/4, with a come from last ride again on tap, and he figures 2-1 or so. Pass for me, but clearly understand he can win. (hear he is training better now). American Freedom ran huge in the Haskell. I could make a case he was best considering trip and pace. Now he goes 1 1/4 in a race where he looks like he could be tracking Laoban. I have to make him a contender. Gun Runner, one of your possible winners? Off of what? he was my Haskell pick as I have been saying he is better than his slow TG figures. But boy he was awful in the Haskell. I guess he can have the slop mulligan, but I don't know, starting to believe he is just slow.

As for the other Saratoga prep horses, I would rather kiss Frank D. than bet on My Man Sam. He ruined my opening weekend, costing me a few grand, when he got a better trip than TGAB's "hopeless longshot" and he still got run down late. To me, a terrible performance and I couldn't use him except maybe 3rd or 4th underneath vertically. Gift Box and Connect are the horses I am most interested in for the Travers. They ran a nice little match race last time with Connect winning but Gift Box was far from disgraced and one could argue with the additional pace expected in the Travers, Gift Box may figure to get a fairer chance and his chances will be enhanced.

Leaning towards playing horizontally using Connect and Gift Box as keys with perhaps American Freedom as a "B".

But of course with 14 horses, the draw matters and I haven't actually seen figures for either the Haskell or the Connect/Gift Box race and that could influence me (don't care what figures the Jim Dandy horses got, can't bet any of them, it had all the looks of a bad race to me....)

Good luck,

Jim