MJ,

He was a tough horse to have for a TG user. He just was.

I don't want to start on the TG California routes issue, other than to say that the routes in California generally get different translations between TGJB and Beyer. TGJB has discussed the reasoning here and people can make their own adjustments or not when they handicap.

But even if you didn't believe the TG numbers for Arrogate (which I didn't), I still couldn't use him. if you thought he ran 1's or 2's, you still had to look at HOW he ran those numbers. To me, running a good figure in a 3 horse field, a 5 horse field and a 5 horse field, with not a single runner in the three races has to be looked at skeptically (unless you are "old school" and "a number is a number".

And whether you thought that TGJB and his 4's were right, or Beyer and his 97 to 103's were right, you couldn't have predicted a Beyer 122 (TG negative 6?), no matter how you graded his earlier races.

As for the comments about waiting to bet against Arrogate again, "if he runs". Think you are doing a major disservice to Baffert. Baffert has proven time and time again that he is in a different league than Pletcher with his top horses. He runs them and he gets them to run their numbers on short rest and on long rest. And his horses don't disappear like Pletcher's after a big number at Gulfstream.

The horse will run again.

sure, the 5% chance of running back to the Travers sounds right. But he won't need to, no matter where he runs. And he won't be overwhelmingly bet either, if he runs back in the Breeders Cup Classic. If he runs against California Chrome and Frosted, amongst others, he will be a price again. And not sure there will be much value in betting against him.

Jim