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Re: Travers (899 Views)
Posted by: mjellish (IP Logged)
Date: August 29, 2016 01:08PM

How the hell do you come up with calling me a red boarder when I said I didn't have the horse? I really didn't even share my pre-race opinion on the horse.

For the record here's what it was. As a lightly raced, highly regarded, well-bred Baffert runner that was shipping in - of course I looked hard at him. He looked a little slow though. But like Sek, I was willing to give him extra credit for his last effort because he broke slow and rallied into a slow early pace in a 3 horse field. I've posted many times on this board about how I view slow early race shapes and the effect they have on figures because a horse can't close his last 1/4 in 21 and change to make up for the slow early race shape. It's something called looking at how a figure is earned, and its often practiced by very good players who aren't dogmatic about the numbers. So based on all of that I knew Arrogate could be ready to run a new top. But to do that, after drawing the rail, he would probably have to break well which is something he hasn't done in 50% of his starts, then send and try to wire the toughest, largest field he'd ever faced at a new longer distance of 1 1/4 that he's never tried (he'd never even been a 1 1/8th), and he had to handle the ship from west coast to east. I didn't view that as likely. In fact, I figured he would be done at the 1/4 pole. So he was a toss for me.



Subject Written By Posted
Travers (1915 Views) sekrah 08/27/2016 05:42PM
Re: Travers (1285 Views) TempletonPeck 08/27/2016 05:48PM
Re: Travers (1151 Views) Silver Charm 08/27/2016 05:52PM
Re: Travers (1119 Views) johnnym 08/27/2016 05:54PM
Re: Travers (1130 Views) sekrah 08/27/2016 06:07PM
Re: Travers (1238 Views) FrankD. 08/27/2016 09:06PM
Re: Travers (969 Views) boston 08/28/2016 01:56AM
Re: Travers (1081 Views) Dana666 08/28/2016 08:53AM
Re: Travers (1034 Views) jerry 08/28/2016 10:53AM
Re: Travers (995 Views) sekrah 08/28/2016 12:26PM
Re: Travers (927 Views) jimbo66 08/28/2016 04:25PM
Re: Travers (910 Views) jerry 08/28/2016 09:23PM
Re: Travers (945 Views) johnnym 08/28/2016 11:32PM
Re: Travers (842 Views) P-Dub 08/29/2016 05:13AM
Re: Travers (839 Views) jerry 08/29/2016 09:24AM
Re: Travers (837 Views) mjellish 08/29/2016 10:16AM
Re: Travers (722 Views) Wrongly 08/29/2016 11:09AM
Re: Travers (771 Views) jerry 08/29/2016 12:09PM
Re: Travers (863 Views) sekrah 08/29/2016 12:16PM
Re: Travers (789 Views) jerry 08/29/2016 12:21PM
Re: Travers (813 Views) sekrah 08/29/2016 04:03PM
Re: Travers (689 Views) jerry 08/29/2016 07:55PM
Re: Travers (899 Views) mjellish 08/29/2016 01:08PM
Re: Travers (754 Views) jerry 08/29/2016 07:58PM
Re: Travers (721 Views) jerry 08/29/2016 08:02PM
Re: Travers (754 Views) jbelfior 08/29/2016 08:10PM
Re: Travers (741 Views) jerry 08/29/2016 08:50PM
Re: Travers (739 Views) mjellish 08/29/2016 09:18PM
Re: Travers (827 Views) jimbo66 08/29/2016 12:33PM
Re: Travers (815 Views) mjellish 08/29/2016 01:17PM
Re: Travers (735 Views) Strike 08/29/2016 10:21PM
Re: Travers (836 Views) BitPlayer 08/29/2016 10:26AM
Re: Travers (836 Views) RICH 08/29/2016 11:11AM
Re: Big Jump-Ups (812 Views) BitPlayer 08/29/2016 12:00PM
Re: Big Jump-Ups (797 Views) jerry 08/29/2016 12:15PM
Re: Travers (776 Views) jerry 08/29/2016 12:11PM
Re: Travers (795 Views) jerry 08/29/2016 12:09PM
Re: Travers (816 Views) johnnym 08/29/2016 01:40PM


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