Interesting little race for sure, though not an easy one to resolve. I agree with a lot of what is written here, and also with the strategy to attack one of the pricier options. However, I wouldn't be so fast to write off Button Down here, which is my pick at 16/1 (bet already placed at fixed odds).

Started progressing at about this time last year including 3 good races in a row at Woodbine, culminating in a big win and number at Churchill Downs in november (perhaps the figure is somewhat "ground loaded", but in any case it was a very strong performance and surely a life top). As they say in the ROTW, this horse was very lightly raced as a 2yo and as many of those this one too is a late bloomer. Where I differ with the ROTW is in what I think she can do tomorrow, and I certainly do not think that 15/1 (ML that ROTW is based on) is a tough bet to take on her delivering top form tomorrow. Everything went wrong last time out, it got crowded, she was shuffled back, tried to build momentum again but once again ran into trouble; I haven't seen many horses able to deliver their best under such circumstances in my life. For me, she's excused, and when you excuse a horse that still ran a 5 3/4 with a 2 to run back to on her best form, that very well may still be improving, and whom gets about 2 points in weight from the toughest competitors, AND pays 16/1, it's interesting. I do think the race shapes are a little bit deceiving for this race, I'm not sure Camp Creek will be that forwardly placed. The way I read this Button Down will be able to get a much more comfortable inside, stalking trip compared to last time and if she has the legs for it and better racing luck now she could get first run of the win contenders here and hopefully steal a couple of lengths from the strongest closers by being 1w1w. I would like her even better if it was a furlong or two shorter maybe, but at 16/1 you can afford to take your chances.