This time the shooters aren't the top gunslingers with time off. The primary threat is Purge. Not so much on comparable ability as the one most likely to pick up the pieces if Smarty has a melt down.

The other horse in my opinion to be considered a threat is Eddington. I really don't think Rock Hard Ten has been relishing the late part of races. He gave it up late in the Santa Anita Derby and Eddington was getting to him good in the Preakness. He could be maturing into it, but he's a Kris S. out of a Prospector mare. I think he's a good 9 mark horse, not as good as Purge though.

Can Smarty be beaten? An empathetic yes. He's never worked over the track. He's never run on it. He's breaking from the outside and it might be wet. His wet numbers have been 1.3's. Can he run a wet 1.3 at 12 marks? Will he regress? Will he bounce? Who else can run a negative 1 in this race?