Obviously, everyone will be 2.10 to show if Smarty is in the money. Implicit in any show bet strategy is the possibility that Smarty will either dislike 12 furlongs or finally fall apart after all these fast races. IMO, these 2 probabilities are higher today than is typically the case.

Personally, I would not bet everyone to show because it would ensure that I'm going lose of lot of money every time Smarty finishes in the money (which is probably well north of 75%).

I'm also going to throw out a bunch of tickets and dilute my odds when I do win by including horses I don't really think are going to hit the board anyway.

IMO, RHT is the most likely to hit the board after Smarty Jones. There are a few others in there that are highly suspect.

The key is what percentage of the time would RHT hit the board even if Smarty is in (I get 2.10) and what percentage will he hit when Smarty is out (at what payoff).

If the net is profiable it's a good bet.

I see no advantage to putting myself into a situation where I would lose a lot of money the vast majority of the time just so I can ensure I will make some money when Smarty is out.

I'd rather collect 2.1 half the time (or so), occasionally have a loser, and occasionally have a windfall on the horse that represent the best value in the pool.

My guess is that that's going to be RHT, but I haven't seen the odds yet. The point is moot thought, I suspect not many of us are going to be on the "show" line for the race. :-)