>Since we are guess....I would guess that the Beyer speed figure will be 100-105. Just a guess, but I think the number will be lower than we might think.<

I agree. If anything it should be at the low end or lower.

However, it would not shock me if some speed handicappers give it a higher figure.

Some might consider the energy expended on the backstretch - which reduced the speed figures of all that participated - as part of the track variant and make a figure that is more representative of the horses' abilitites and less representative of how fast they actually ran.

In other words, the trip will be built into the figure.

If people do that, they will tend to overrate both Birdstone and Royal Assault.

If some people then use that higher figure and supplement it with the trip, they will tend to overrate the horses that participated in the contest on the back.

I hope that made some sense. It's not easy to express what I am saying.