I don't really get all the cynicism in trying to evaluate the race. SJ was running along in about the same position in the Belmont as he did in the Arkansas Derby, The K. Derby and the Preakness. The half times of those races were 46:4,46:3, and 47:1. In Jan. on the inner track, he was in the same position in a 47 flat half. Now he's running on a track that's at least a second faster than normal and he's loping along on a 48:3 half, irregardless of the fact that it's a mile and a half race, why doesn't anyone believe Elliot when he said the horse was pulling him along? Of course the horse couldn't settle. If you want to fault the rider maybe he should have gone a 47:2 half on that track to get the horse to relax. Maybe then he would have won because Birdstone would have been too far back or going to fast to keep up to have the late kick he did.
In addition, if we say that Bailey is one of the 3 or 4 best riders of all time and a fairly decent judge of pace. What did you expect him to do off a 48:3 half on a track on which a filly broke the 6 1/2 furlong record earlier in the day? Should he have just waited to outsprint SJ to the wire after what he had seen the last two times he raced against him? He wasn't on a very good horse but the idea that Jerry Bailey would sacrifice his chance to win a million dollar race just to cause another horse to lose is preposterous. Anyone who seriously thinks that should take up golf and stop playing the horses. Why would he do that? Do you think MaryLou and Penny did a duet on him?
As it turned out I thought SJ ran a great race but lost to a very good horse running the best race of his life, a la Monarchos in the derby a couple of years ago. and that's what makes horse racing. I think if Smarty stays sound he will dominate the fall racing.