Re: BES - Preakness DD Probables (917 Views)
Posted by:
hellersorr (IP Logged)
Date: May 20, 2017 12:47AM
Thorographically, Hence is arguably seventh fastest runner in the race and his top effort is arguably considerably slower than the top efforts of the six runners who are faster than him.
Because of this and because the projected pace does not appear to favor deep closers, Hence would not appear to be a wise bet at anything less than 20-1. But what if he's 30-1? 35-1?
At SOME price he's a play, as Thorographically slow runners will win a number of races Saturday all across the fruited plain. (Ditto Ragozinically, Beyerinically, Timeforminically, etc. slow runners. These things happen.)
It's not like he wiped himself out two weeks ago with a huge effort, as is possibly the case with the heavily bet AD and CE.
If I bet Hence because he's 30-1, it will be a small wager, I assure you - as I don't have a high winning percentage with 30-1 shots. But I'm NOT betting a deli to win a pickle (somebody said that once) on AD at 1-1 or CE at 2-1.
(You know what? I think I like my original "Reader's Digest" posting on Hence better. . . .)