Boardedup -

I struggled with similar issues regarding those figs. One of the things I did was translate the Beyer fig to the TG scale using the formula TGJB post long ago:

https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,42221,42269#msg-42269

and then adjust for weight and ground loss to see how it compared with the TG fig. Beyer has modified his scale in some unspecified way since TGJB's post, but the translation still seems to give reasonable results (at least in the small number of races, all Triple-Crown-related, for which I have gone to this much trouble). Sometimes Beyer has a race faster; sometimes Beyer has it slower.

In the case of the races in your post, I think Beyer had the Arkansas Derby faster and the Wood slower. Taking a wisdom-of-crowds approach, I used a figure somewhere in the middle of Beyer and TG in doing a Monte Carlo simulation of the race.

The outcome was that Cloud Computing looked like a play at his odds, Conquest Mo Money did not. Of course, after doing all that I tossed Cloud Computing on the win end (I didn't think he would want 9.5 furlongs), and included Conquest Mo Money (I thought speed was playing well; why did they not send him?).

As things turned out, Cloud Computing did handle the distance, but Conquest Mo Money did not run all that badly. Given his ground loss, I think he may have earned the third-best figure in the race, which might have put him in the thick of things with a rail trip.