While I appreciate the perceived value of the ROTW analysis. I just do not have any confidence in the habitual ground losers Special Ops & Conquest Typhoon. I'm convinced Gangster is a poor favorite and beatable but befuddled abit by expectations of a heavy track.

So I went through the data wrote down my thoughts only to realize I agree with Allen other than Conquest Typhoon who could and should finish better than in previous efforts. His confidence is my trepidation.


[b]One Mean Man[/b]
The TG read that this one, in the best case, could finish 3rd or 4th. Makes sense to me. One Mean Man could run another good 5 (i.e. little or no ground loss). I'm going to sleep on the idea of keying this one in 3rd or 4th?

[b]Special Ops[/b]
My problem with Special Ops is I expect him to run a 6. Also known as a ground loss loaded 4. The trainer switch from Brad Cox to Mike Maker is cause to suspect he may run better than expected. Other than that I would toss this one.

[b]Pleuven[/b]
@ m/l 3/1 not under the radar. From my perspective this horse s/b and maybe will be the post time favorite. I'll excuse the last race (temporarily) as a bad trip. Need to watch the replay agaiin. Forecasting a good 3-4 makes this one the most likely winner unfortuneately the crowd may agree.

[b]Gangster[/b]
M/L favoritisim could be a function O'Neill's reputation and SoCal origins than other factors. For me, jockey Gutierrez mitigates any advantage. IMO, as the horse most likely to run a good 4-5 will not leave this one out but don't expect a winner.

[b]Chocolate Ride[/b]
My issue with this horse is how heavy will the track be? Do you like front runners on tracks tha are not fast? Plus the O'Neill horse unlikely to concede an easy lead. Consistent and competitive but has Bridgmohan been riding him?

[b]Conquest Typhoon[/b]
The race is only 1+1/16. Unless something changes it will be over before he gets straighten out for home. What I mean is his apparently good looking #'s are like Special OPs ground loss loaded. Maybe Albarado carves out a trip that saves some ground. m/l 8/1 seems fair to me. A slow track could work to his advantage cause he has a late kick.

[b]Kalamos[/b]
Not the worst 30/1 m/l horse I've ever seen. Only 8 y/o and well rested for a couple of years? Don't know enough about the trainer or jockey as a cause for any confidence. Is slow now but was fast and very durable once. Probably not on any of my tickets.

[b]Western Reserve[/b]
Reminds me of Cleveland and academia. It would be nice to understand the trainer change. Otherwise nothing not to like for me. Contender.

[b]Surgical Strike[/b]
I don't see this horse being relevant other than as traffic.

[b]In Summary[/b]
My plan is to also play exactas but fewer tickets. In the 1st position Western Reserve, Pleuven. In the 2nd slot I'll use Western Reserve, Chocolate Ride, & Pleuven. If it comes off the turf $2 to show on Kalamos.

Thanks for ROTW it's appreciated.