Santa Catalina (684 Views)
Date: March 03, 2005 09:40AM
If it weren't for the fact that Declan's Moon looks like he'll be able to get a perfect trip sitting just off Going Wild and Spanish Chestnut, I'd think he was actually "a little" vulnerable here.
Going Wild looks to be the quicker and better of the two speeds, but it also looks like both them need a decent trip on the front end to get the route. That could play into the strategy.
With SC on the inside of GW, GW might have to either work hard to get the lead or try to rate. If neither allows the other to get away easy, which seems likely, they could compromise each others chances enough to matter.
I don't think Declan was so much better than GW when he left off that he can come back a little short and beat him if for some reason GW sprints clear and gets away with a decent pace. Not saying that Declan won't eventually be much better, but coming back off a little over 2 months and with bigger fish to fry in a few months this is not the place to expect 100%.
I can't imagine that Declan is wound up 100% for this race. He's going to have to win on sheer superiority or favorable trip. He seserves favoritism, but I suspect he doesn't deserve to be as big a favorite as he will be.