Re: Santa Catalina (365 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: March 03, 2005 01:26PM
Just a couple of quick comments regarding this race, since I have to start writing ROTW (Big Cap). Ellis was quoted recently as saying that no matter whose ratings you used the Dmr Futurity figure was "off the charts" (or something like that). Wrong. Not on all ratings.
Aside from whatever Ragozin gave the horse, this race gives a good example of the Beyer figures being wrong by region. The California figures are too high, Snack's TP figures way too low, although some of the differential there is ground loss. None of which is meant to express an opinion about this race-- Ellis is a layoff trainer, and I think the horse will run well this time, and be a bet against the rest of the way (I know Michael disagrees). Snack, on the other hand, may be killed by that last huge effort, and is dealing with an east-west ship. On the other hand, he's getting big weight from DM and GW, the other horses with numbers... the race is an unbettable mess.
Not so other big races Saturday.
TGJB