Re: Keeneland Today Strong 20+mph crosswind (775 Views)
Posted by:
Gerard (IP Logged)
Date: April 12, 2018 03:30PM
I find it difficult to handicap for wind per se. Be it tail, head or cross. Crosswinds do seem to produce a higher rate of jumps and x'es. The reason it is difficult are the higher gusts that accompany any sustained wind. Gusts can fracture any race and are impossible to account for.
I find wind more useful after the fact. You can take today's jump ups and have a stronger case for expecting a bounce, especially if you can pinpoint wind speed, exact direction and intra race gusts to the start of each race and whether the jump up was a result. More useful in my mind are the unexpected x'es that will show up. Using today's example, a horse that races outside on the backstretch will likely be expending more energy than the horses on the inside. Similar to running on a dead rail. I'll look for horses that didn't run their race today and if they were exposed to that backstretch crosswind, they'd definitely be marked for next out.
Speaking of dead rails, Free Drop Billy has come back from his dead rail trip at Del Mar in nice fashion. Good second to Audible on a slightly windy Holy Bull day, then mauled at the finish of the Blue Grass. What may be missed in the Blue Grass is the backup he had to do on the backstretch behind Gotta Go. Early on, he's my pick to crash the verticals.
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