See the Archives and look at Golden Soul, Commanding Curve, Make Music For Me, etc. Those are some deep closers who had non competitive numbers who hit the superfecta fairly recently. There are more.

Thing is, IMO, so many of the colts with the best numbers tend to have some speed and are able to secure a decent position early on and get a decent trip. But there are some who are used to getting it that way, but dont in the ky derby because there is no margin for error. They get off poorly or get bumped hard at the start, some due to bad luck, some because they are over the top and due for or a bounce, and some are just out quicked. But they suddenly find they’re behind horses getting the kickback in their face and this is a situation they have never been in before. They often run off races.

Seems like the late runners are usually able to relax and run their race, but then are at the mercy of the early pace and getting through the traffic. Ice Box maybe would have won back 2010, for example. But he had competitive numbers going in. Exaggerator had good numbers too but Nyquist beat him on the square.

So what kind of early pace do you expect? I would start by asking that.