Your Ask The Experts ID
is separate from your
Order Online Account ID
 Race of the Week:  2023 Breeders' Cup Days Final Figures Santa Anita 3-4 November 2023  • 1 Specials Available
Order Online
Buy TG Data
Complete Menu of
TG Data products
Simulcast Books
Customize a Value
Package of Select
TG Data
Sheet Requests
Order The Last Figure for Any Horse
Free Products
Redboard Room
Download and Review previous days' data.
Race of the Week
With detailed comments
ThoroTrack
Email notification when your horse races
Information
Introduction
For newcomers.
Samples and Tutorials
For Horsemen
Consulting services and Graph Racing
Sales Sites
Where to buy TG around the country
Archives
Historical races and handicapping articles
Handicapping
Hall of Fame
Major handicapping contest winners
Home Page
The Whitney (658 Views)
Posted by: Upper Nile (IP Logged)
Date: August 06, 2004 01:40PM

Since recent posts have been discussing and comparing "traditional" handicapping factors such as class and pace as compared to TG figs this race may be useful in continuing the discussion. Handicappers over-considering pace as a major factor will likely settle on Perfect Drift and Bowman's Band while underestimating or dismissing the likes of Peace Rules, Roses In May, Gygistar, YesSir and Seattle Fitz. One caveat with this kind of analysis is how frequently races end up being run differently than expected, from a pace perspective. Handicappers over-considering the class factor will likely upgrade the Grade 1 winners and downgrade the others. These two traditional handicapping factors may lead to at least a few over bet underlays such as: Perfect Drift, Peace Rules and Seattle Fitz.
I'm hoping traditional handicapping will lead to a few overlays-one of which is my selection based on TG figures including the new figure based patterns-ROSES IN MAY.

Roses In May is just getting started. He came out running last year with a real nice pattern of incremental development getting down to his top of a 3, which was run on this track at this distance. Class and pace handicappers wiil look at that race and may dismiss the good effort because Roses In May was loose on the lead and it was in an entry level alw.
Don't know what happened in the Dwyer but now we come to this years pattern. Although not yet proven in graded stakes he sure ran a figure that would be competitive in graded stakes first out. Roses In May then regressed only a couple of points off the big effort first time back. Graded stakes quality runners who only regress slightly off big top's is an indication to me that Roses In May will be able to continue to develop. That's just what happened last out and tomorrow I'm expecting at least a pair-up with another forward move very possible as shown by the figure based pattern. At the weights and the price I'll enjoy watching Roses In May saving ground and stealing this one on the lead.
As Harvet Pack says "May The Horse Be with you".
Phil



Subject Written By Posted
The Whitney (658 Views) Upper Nile 08/06/2004 01:40PM
Re: The Whitney (444 Views) Upper Nile 08/09/2004 08:33AM
Re: The Whitney (394 Views) miff 08/09/2004 09:22AM
Re: The Whitney (401 Views) JJP 08/09/2004 09:43AM
Re: The Whitney (403 Views) Upper Nile 08/09/2004 11:48AM


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.
This forum powered by Phorum.

Thoro-Graph 180 Varick Street New York, NY 10014 ---- Click here for the Ask The Experts Archives.