The Whitney (658 Views)
Posted by:
Upper Nile (IP Logged)
Date: August 06, 2004 01:40PM
Since recent posts have been discussing and comparing "traditional" handicapping factors such as class and pace as compared to TG figs this race may be useful in continuing the discussion. Handicappers over-considering pace as a major factor will likely settle on Perfect Drift and Bowman's Band while underestimating or dismissing the likes of Peace Rules, Roses In May, Gygistar, YesSir and Seattle Fitz. One caveat with this kind of analysis is how frequently races end up being run differently than expected, from a pace perspective. Handicappers over-considering the class factor will likely upgrade the Grade 1 winners and downgrade the others. These two traditional handicapping factors may lead to at least a few over bet underlays such as: Perfect Drift, Peace Rules and Seattle Fitz.
I'm hoping traditional handicapping will lead to a few overlays-one of which is my selection based on TG figures including the new figure based patterns-ROSES IN MAY.
Roses In May is just getting started. He came out running last year with a real nice pattern of incremental development getting down to his top of a 3, which was run on this track at this distance. Class and pace handicappers wiil look at that race and may dismiss the good effort because Roses In May was loose on the lead and it was in an entry level alw.
Don't know what happened in the Dwyer but now we come to this years pattern. Although not yet proven in graded stakes he sure ran a figure that would be competitive in graded stakes first out. Roses In May then regressed only a couple of points off the big effort first time back. Graded stakes quality runners who only regress slightly off big top's is an indication to me that Roses In May will be able to continue to develop. That's just what happened last out and tomorrow I'm expecting at least a pair-up with another forward move very possible as shown by the figure based pattern. At the weights and the price I'll enjoy watching Roses In May saving ground and stealing this one on the lead.
As Harvet Pack says "May The Horse Be with you".
Phil
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